March 15th 2026 – Benchmark prices of crude oil are aggressively trending higher in the longest-term time frames reports Trend Intelligence, indicating that recent price spikes of up to $120 a barrel are not short-lived outliers but are actually part of larger trend and paradigm shift that could see oil prices far exceed $150 for months and years to come.
Trend’s analysis arrives as Iran has confirmed that it will now attack the UAE’s ports, oil infrastructure and has already begun to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reports the Financial Times. Broad attacks on oil assets throughout the Gulf and the halt of shipping throughout the straight have added significant short-term pressure to oil prices. Issuers and investors alike now wait to determine if this price pressure will be for the long term.
Trend analysis (click chart to expand): Trend Intelligence uses a customized collection of trend-following signals and algorithms to demonstrate ongoing price trends across financial markets to the benefit of corporate C-Suite, Treasury and Investor Relations teams.
In our Brent crude oil analysis, Trend Intelligence runs its D* Momentum model displaying a recently emerging positive trend: as its positive green indication area now far exceeds zero. The last time such a signal was seen was back in 2021 after oil demand returned following Covid 19.
With respect to all signals, Trend Intelligence remains ultra long-term trend positive on crude prices, expecting them to move far beyond the newly adjusted 2-month Energy Information Administration target of $95 a barrel.
Positive news supporting the trend: Retail traders are also now piling into bets on oil. Flows from retail investors into oil ETFs and options have reached new records, demonstrating the oil market’s new role as retail’s latest playground, drawing comparisons to the so-called “meme” stocks, reports the Financial Times.
Comments from Trend’s founder, Adrian Dacruz: “Unless significant diplomatic or logistical changes are made incredibly quickly, we can expect oil to trend much higher in the short-term, likely exceeding the previous high of around $120 a barrel (for WTI). Once those highs are broken, $120 essentially becomes the new floor for the market, meaning that prices will consistently exceed that level – and we’ll be buying oil for $120 at a bargain”. Adrian also believes that a new paradigm of higher oil prices coupled with Donald Trump’s known reluctance to increase interest rates will cause higher levels of inflation that could significantly degrade the US Dollar and in turn global asset prices.
About Trend’s Investments: In addition to producing its trend-following intelligence, Trend Global Markets invests across global commodities and equities, having current exposures of approximately $2M. The fund currently has long positions in crude oil and is short selling US equity indices.
Produced by Trend Intelligence, London
