March 9th 2025 – Trend Intelligence warns that major indices representing the US equity markets including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are expected to continue trending aggressively negative this coming week, this as US president Donald Trump today refused to rule out either a recession or higher inflation as consequences to his aggressive trade agenda, reported the Financial Times.
Trend’s Analysis (click chart to expand): Trend Intelligence uses a customized collection of trend-following signals, expressed in aggregate as a Trend Score, to demonstrate ongoing price trends across financial market indices and instruments.
In our Nasdaq 100 chart, Trend Intelligence uses its R* Momentum Indicator to indicate that its R* Area (blue) and R* Signal Line (yellow) trade below the zero (horizontal) cutoff line. This is, and has shown over time to be, a negative trend signal.
In addition to Trend’s R* Momentum Indicator, the Nasdaq 100 index currently prices far below Trend’s medium-term (yellow) moving average and Japanese Cloud indicator (shaded in blue). With respect to all indicators, Trend Intelligence remains strongly negative on the Nasdaq 100 index price – until the trend shows signs of ending.
Downside News: The well renowned Atlanta Fed last week warned of a US economic contraction in the first quarter of 2025. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate calls for a first-quarter GDP decline of 2.8% according to Barron’s. Additionally, Trend Intelligence’s newest report on the volatility index (VIX) shows that short-term positive trend signals in this index are quickly building, anticipating greater US stock market shocks in the weeks ahead.
Upside News: Last Friday, Fed chief Powell described the current job market as “solid,” easing economic fears and driving equity indices higher. Powell said that the central bank can await “greater clarity” on the net effect of Trump policies before making its next move, reported investors.com
- View Trend’s full report on the Nasdaq 100 Index here
- View Trend’s full report on the VIX Index here
Authored by Trend Intelligence, London
